Canada Housing Market: September 2026 Numbers, and How Vancouver Compares
Canadian home sales fell 2.3% from August to September, and CREA's national benchmark price slipped 0.4% after four flat months. That's the headline from the Canadian Real Estate Association's release this morning. The more useful number for anyone in Metro Vancouver is the gap: the national MLS® Home Price Index is down 3.4% from a year ago, Greater Vancouver's benchmark is down 5.5%, and the Fraser Valley's is down 7.2%.
So the national market is soft, and ours is softer. Here's the national picture in numbers, how the big markets compare, why fixed mortgage rates are the story this fall, and what I'd do with it if you're buying or selling here.
Source: CREA, national statistics release, October 16, 2026 (September 2026 data; sales, new listings, ratio and inventory are seasonally adjusted; the year-over-year sales change, HPI change and average price are not).
Canada in September: the numbers
CREA counts every sale on Canada's MLS® Systems. In September, sales fell 2.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis, and actual (unadjusted) sales were 7.7% below September 2025. New listings fell 1.8% after a rebound in August. CREA says new supply has generally been declining since early 2025.
Sales fell only a little faster than new listings, so the sales-to-new-listings ratio barely moved: 48.8%, down from 49.1% in August. A little over 200,000 properties were listed for sale across Canada at the end of September, up 1.8% from a year earlier. That works out to 4.9 months of inventory, which is right on the long-term average.
Prices: the National Composite MLS® HPI edged down 0.4% from August, and CREA ties it to a fresh step down in Ontario, along with smaller offsetting gains on the Prairies, in Quebec and on the East Coast. Year over year it's down 3.4%, and CREA notes it's the first time since January that the annual decline got bigger rather than smaller. The national average sale price was $666,538, down 1.6%. I'd ignore the average for anything local. CREA itself warns that it doesn't reflect prices in any particular area, and a national average blends a $1 million Vancouver benchmark with markets where the typical home costs less than half that.
Shaun Cathcart, CREA's senior economist, put the month this way:
“After a four-month run of modestly positive progress on demand, supply, and prices, many of Canada’s housing markets took a step back in September. This was hardly surprising given the latest jump in fixed mortgage rates, and with the Bank of Canada now widely expected to follow with a rate hike before the end of the year,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.
That's CREA's economist describing what markets expect. It isn't a decision, and I'll come back to it in the rates section.
Buyer's market or seller's market?
Nationally, it's balanced. CREA treats a sales-to-new-listings ratio between roughly 45% and 65% as balanced, and a market with fewer than 3.6 months of inventory as a seller's market and more than 6.4 as a buyer's market. At 48.8% and 4.9 months, Canada sits in the middle of both ranges.
Metro Vancouver doesn't. Our boards measure balance a little differently, with the month's sales as a share of all active listings. The Fraser Valley board calls 12% to 20% balanced. GVR says a ratio below 12% for a sustained period tends to push prices down, and above 20% for several months tends to push them up.
| Market | Measure | Sept 2026 | Reads as |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | Sales / new listings | 48.8% | Balanced |
| Canada | Months of inventory | 4.9 | Balanced |
| Greater Vancouver | Sales / active | 10.9% | Buyer's side |
| Greater Vancouver | Months of inventory* | 9.5 | High |
| Fraser Valley | Sales / active* | 9.4% | Buyer's side |
| Fraser Valley | Months of inventory* | 10.6 | High |
Source: CREA, September 2026 release (seasonally adjusted); GVR September 2026 stats package; FVREB September 2026 stats package. Balanced ranges: CREA, 45% to 65% and 3.6 to 6.4 months; local boards, 12% to 20% sales to active. *My calculation from the boards' counts of sales and active listings, not seasonally adjusted, so not directly comparable with CREA's adjusted figures.
GVR had 16,394 active listings in September against 1,717 sales. Active listings were 24.3% above the 10-year September average, even though they're down 4.0% from last year. GVR puts its sales-to-active ratio at 10.9%, and says a ratio below 12% for a sustained period tends to put downward pressure on prices. The Fraser Valley board says plainly that it has spent most of the last two years in a buyer's market, with no change in September.
My read: the national "balanced" label is an average of very different places. If you're buying in Metro Vancouver, you have more inventory to choose from and more room to negotiate than the national numbers suggest.
Vancouver vs Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa and Edmonton
- Down
Source: GVR; FVREB; TRREB Market Watch; CREB; REALTORS® Association of Edmonton; OREB (September 2026 releases)
Show the numbers
| Item | Composite benchmark, y/y |
|---|---|
| Fraser Valley | −7.2% |
| Greater Vancouver | −5.5% |
| Toronto (all TRREB areas) | −4.7% |
| City of Toronto | −3.8% |
| Calgary (city) | −0.8% |
| Edmonton (Greater Edmonton) | −0.3% |
| Ottawa | −0.3% |
Every major market on that list is lower than a year ago, but the size of the drop splits the country in two. Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa are within one per cent of where they were. Toronto is down about 4.7%. Greater Vancouver is down 5.5%, 2.1 points worse than CREA's national index (−3.4%), and the Fraser Valley is down 7.2%.
In dollars, the composite benchmark is $1,075,900 in Greater Vancouver, $917,600 across the TRREB area, $861,300 in the Fraser Valley, $623,500 in Ottawa, $566,700 in Calgary and $423,100 in Edmonton. Greater Vancouver is the most expensive of these markets by this measure, which is part of why it's more sensitive to mortgage rates: a quarter point means more dollars on a bigger loan.
Over a longer stretch, GVR's composite benchmark is down 10.0% over three years and 2.2% over five, and up 7.5% over ten. The Fraser Valley's is down 15.7% over three years. If you're weighing a move between provinces, I compared Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver in more practical terms in my guide to moving to Vancouver.
Benchmark prices by home type
The composite hides the split by property type. Each board publishes its own benchmark for a typical detached house, townhouse and apartment, so here they are side by side with the one-year change in brackets.
| Market | Detached | Townhouse | Apartment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Vancouver | $1.78M −7.3% | $1.02M −4.7% | $683K −6.2% |
| Fraser Valley | $1.30M −8.8% | $745K −6.2% | $462K −9.3% |
| Toronto (all TRREB areas) | $1.20M −4.8% | $669K −6.5% | $527K −6.7% |
| Calgary | $739K −1.0% | $412K −5.5% | $291K −8.3% |
| Ottawa | $705K about flat | $547K −2.2% | $381K −6.1% |
Source: GVR; FVREB; TRREB (detached = single-family detached); CREB (city of Calgary; townhouse = row); OREB (single-family; OREB describes it as nearly unchanged from a year earlier). September 2026 releases.
Two things jump out. First, apartments are weak almost everywhere: down 6.2% in Greater Vancouver, 9.3% in the Fraser Valley, 6.7% in Toronto and 8.3% in Calgary. That's the investor-heavy segment, and it's the one most exposed to higher rates and slower population growth.
Second, in Greater Vancouver it's detached prices that fell the most over the year (−7.3%), even though detached sales were up 4.2% from last September while apartment sales fell 18.6%. GVR's chief economist Andrew Lis said the weakness in sales is "contained to the sizeable apartment segment" and that end-users are driving the market while investor demand waits. I read that as buyers who need a house showing up because detached prices have come down to them, not the other way around.
Fixed rates jumped. The Bank hasn't moved yet
- 5-yr Government of Canada bond yield
- Bank of Canada policy rate
Source: Bank of Canada, 5-year benchmark bond yield; Bank of Canada, target for the overnight rate (V39079)
Show the numbers
| 5-yr Government of Canada bond yield | Bank of Canada policy rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | 2.74% | 2.50% |
| Oct 25 | 2.70% | 2.25% |
| Nov 25 | 2.72% | 2.25% |
| Dec 25 | 2.96% | 2.25% |
| Jan 26 | 2.93% | 2.25% |
| Feb 26 | 2.67% | 2.25% |
| Mar 26 | 3.09% | 2.25% |
| Apr 26 | 3.20% | 2.25% |
| May 26 | 3.05% | 2.25% |
| Jun 26 | 3.01% | 2.25% |
| Jul 26 | 3.27% | 2.25% |
| Aug 26 | 3.33% | 2.25% |
| Sep 26 | 3.69% | 2.25% |
| Oct 26 | 3.53% | 2.25% |
The Bank of Canada's policy rate has been 2.25% since the cut announced October 29, 2025. It held again on September 2. What moved is the bond market. Five-year fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bonds, not the policy rate, and the five-year yield went from 2.73% on the day of that last cut to 3.53% on October 15. It ended September at 3.69%, the high on this chart.
Banks followed. The chartered banks' posted five-year rate sat at 6.09% every week from May 2025 to the end of September, then moved to 6.19% on October 7. Posted rates are higher than what most borrowers actually pay, but the direction matters. The average rate on uninsured fixed mortgages of five years or more funded in July was 4.49%, the latest month the Bank of Canada has published, so it doesn't yet show the September move.
Here's why a quarter point matters more in Vancouver than in Edmonton. Take a hypothetical $700,000 mortgage over 25 years. At 4.49% the payment is about $3,870 a month; at 4.74% it's about $3,968, $98 more. The stress test bites harder: lenders qualify you at the higher of your contract rate plus two points or 5.25%, so the qualifying payment goes from about $4,685 to $4,791. Every quarter-point rise in contract rates shrinks the loan you qualify for on the same income. I worked through the income side in the income needed to buy a house in Vancouver.
Source: Bank of Canada, upcoming events; Statistics Canada, The Daily (Sept 14, 2026); CREA release; CREA quarterly forecast, Oct 16, 2026.
My read: if you're on a variable rate or about to choose one, October 28 is the date that matters most, because variable rates move with the policy rate. Fixed rates have already moved ahead of the Bank. If you're renewing soon, get written offers with a rate hold now rather than waiting on a decision date; I went through the renewal math in mortgage renewal 2026, and current rates are on my mortgage rates page.
CREA's forecast for 2026 and 2027
CREA also updated its quarterly forecast today, and cut it. Its reason is the same one in the monthly release: higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty about how far variable rates will go.
| CREA forecast | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sales, Canada | 444,530 −5.2% | 464,235 +4.4% |
| Avg price, Canada | $681,681 +0.2% | $689,909 +1.2% |
| Avg price, B.C. | −0.8% | n/a |
| Avg price, Ontario | −3.0% | n/a |
Source: CREA, Quarterly Forecasts, October 16, 2026. Annual change under each figure; n/a = not given in the release text. These are CREA's forecasts of MLS® sales and average prices, not predictions of mine.
For 2027, CREA expects national sales to rise 4.4% and most provinces to see gains of 3% to 6%. It says that rests on slow but positive economic growth, population growth picking back up, and more certainty about interest rates. It also says the forecast assumes limited action by the Bank over the next year. If the Bank does more than that, the assumptions behind the forecast no longer hold.
The price forecast is close to flat: CREA notes 2026 and 2027 would be the sixth and seventh straight years that the national average price hovers near $700,000. For British Columbia it forecasts a 0.8% decline in the average price in 2026. An average across all of B.C. mixes Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Victoria and the Interior, so I'd use it for direction, not for pricing a home.
What it means in Metro Vancouver
The board numbers above are September sales. For what's on the market right now, here's EstateBlock's live listing data from this morning. These are asking prices of active listings, not sale prices: what sellers are hoping for, not what buyers paid.
| City | Houses | Townhouses | Condos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver | $2.74M | $1.40M | $799K |
| Burnaby | $2.10M | $920K | $687K |
| Richmond | $2.28M | $1.05M | $686K |
| Coquitlam | $1.80M | $1.07M | $632K |
| North Vancouver | $2.28M | $1.30M | $799K |
| Surrey | $1.61M | $789K | $499K |
| Langley | $1.84M | $829K | $500K |
| Abbotsford | $1.29M | $666K | $399K |
Source: EstateBlock.com live listings, snapshot 2026-10-16 (city pages, e.g. Vancouver). Asking prices of active listings, not sale prices.
Vancouver has 2,302 condos listed at a median ask of $799K, and the median active condo listing has been up for 38 days. Surrey has 1,843 houses for sale. Vancouver's median condo ask is above GVR's $682,500 apartment benchmark for the whole region, which isn't a like-for-like comparison, but it's a reminder that a list price is the opening line, not the answer.
If you're buying
Metro Vancouver gives you more negotiating room than the national numbers imply, and CREA's chair said today that higher rates will "likely mean more homes to choose from and more negotiating power." The catch is the rate. I'd get a written pre-approval with a rate hold before October 28, because a hold protects you if fixed rates keep climbing. Then make offers based on recent sales of comparable homes, not on asking prices. Condo buyers have the most room, given how weak apartment sales were in September, but check the strata's documents and the building's depreciation report before you lean on price alone.
If you're selling
Price for the market you're in, not the one in the national headline. GVR's composite benchmark slipped about half a per cent in September alone, and Lis said the small monthly drops add up: all segments are now down about three per cent since the start of the year. A listing priced at last spring's number will sit, and every week it sits it competes with new listings at lower prices. If you're not sure where your home lands, my home value estimator is a starting point and the market reports page has the monthly numbers.
If you're waiting
That's a legitimate choice, but be honest about what you're waiting for. Lower prices and lower rates may not show up together. If rates rise, prices could keep easing while your borrowing power shrinks; if rates fall, competition tends to come back. I can't tell you which happens, and nobody else can either. What I'd do is set your budget at today's stress-test rate, watch the October 28 decision and the November 17 CREA release, and be ready to move when the right home is priced right.
For the city-by-city picture in Vancouver itself, see my Vancouver real estate page; the mortgage affordability calculator runs the stress test on your own numbers.
FAQ
Is the Canadian housing market going down?
Prices are lower than a year ago. CREA's National Composite MLS® HPI was down 3.4% year over year in September 2026 and down 0.4% from August, after four months of stable prices. The national market is balanced by CREA's measures, with 4.9 months of inventory.
Is Canada in a buyer's market or a seller's market?
Nationally it's balanced: the sales-to-new-listings ratio was 48.8% in September, inside CREA's balanced range of roughly 45% to 65%. Greater Vancouver (10.9% sales-to-active) and the Fraser Valley (about 9.4%) are below the 12% to 20% balanced range their boards use, which favours buyers.
How does Vancouver compare with the rest of Canada?
Greater Vancouver's composite benchmark was $1,075,900 in September 2026, down 5.5% in a year, versus 3.4% nationally. The Fraser Valley was down 7.2%, Toronto (TRREB) about 4.7%, while Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa were within one per cent of a year earlier.
What does CREA forecast for 2027?
In its October 16, 2026 forecast, CREA expects national sales to rise 4.4% to about 464,235 in 2027 and the national average price to rise 1.2% to $689,909. CREA says the forecast assumes limited Bank of Canada action over the next year.
When is the next Bank of Canada decision?
Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, with a Monetary Policy Report. The policy rate is 2.25%. CREA's economist says a hike before year-end is widely expected; that is an expectation, not a decision.
This post is general market information, not financial or mortgage advice. Confirm rates and qualification with your lender or a licensed mortgage professional.
Sources
- CREA: Canadian Home Sales Pull Back in September (national statistics, October 16, 2026)
- CREA: Quarterly Forecasts, October 16, 2026
- Greater Vancouver Realtors: September 2026 stats package
- Fraser Valley Real Estate Board: September 2026 stats package
- TRREB: Market Watch, September 2026
- CREB: City of Calgary monthly statistics, September 2026
- REALTORS® Association of Edmonton: September 2026 market statistics
- Ottawa Real Estate Board: September 2026 market update
- Bank of Canada: target for the overnight rate, V39079 (Valet API)
- Bank of Canada: 5-year Government of Canada benchmark bond yield (Valet API)
- Bank of Canada: 5-year conventional mortgage posted rate, V80691335 (Valet API)
- Bank of Canada: uninsured fixed 5-year-and-over mortgage rate, funds advanced, V122667786 (Valet API)
- Bank of Canada: policy rate announcement, September 2, 2026
- Bank of Canada: upcoming events (October 28, 2026 announcement)
- Statistics Canada: The Daily, Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (next release date)
- OSFI: minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages
- EstateBlock.com: live listings by city (snapshot October 16, 2026; asking prices of active listings)
Dan Marusin PREC, REALTOR® · Renanza Realty Inc., 777 Hornby St, Suite 600, Vancouver, BC. This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice.