Mortgage Renewal 2026: What a 22% Payment Jump Looks Like, and What to Do
Say you bought a typical Greater Vancouver condo in the fall of 2021 with 20% down and took a five-year fixed at 2.22%, the average rate on new uninsured five-year mortgages that October. Your payment was about $2,362 a month. Renew it now at 4.49%, the latest average the Bank of Canada has published, and the payment on what you still owe goes to about $2,884. That's +22.1%, on a smaller balance.
That is a hypothetical, and I'll show every step below. It's also higher than the average the Bank of Canada expects. In its 2026 Financial Stability Report, the Bank says the last of the five-year fixed mortgages taken out during the pandemic renew over the next 12 months, and those borrowers will see payments rise by about 15% on average.
Not everyone renewing in 2026 is in that group. If you took a three-year fixed in 2023, your payment is more likely to go down. The point of this post is to work out which group you're in and what to do about it before your lender's renewal letter shows up.
Source: Bank of Canada, table A4 (series V122667786, effective rate on new uninsured fixed mortgages of 5 years and over); Bank of Canada, Sept 2, 2026 decision; condo example calculated below.
Who actually gets the payment shock
The Bank of Canada splits renewals over the next year into two groups. I'd read your mortgage statement and find yours before reading anything else.
Five-year fixed mortgages from 2021 and early 2022. These were taken out during the pandemic, when the policy rate was at or near its 0.25% low. The Bank's report puts this group at about 12% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada, with an average payment increase of about 15%. Last July, a Bank staff note (SAN 2025-21) had put the 2026 average for five-year fixed renewals at about 20%; that note measured against December 2024 payments, while the newer report uses December 2025 payments.
Everyone else renewing. Shorter fixed terms and variable-payment mortgages taken out after rates rose in 2022 and 2023 are about 14% of outstanding mortgages. The Bank says these borrowers, on average, won't see their payments change at renewal.
- Up
Source: Bank of Canada, Financial Stability Report 2026, Chart 8
Show the numbers
| Item | Avg payment change |
|---|---|
| 5-yr+ fixed payment, renewing Jul 2026 to Jun 2027 | +15.2% |
| 5-yr+ fixed payment, renewing Jul to Dec 2027 | +5.8% |
| Shorter fixed or variable payment, Jul 2026 to Jun 2027 | 0.0% |
| Shorter fixed or variable payment, Jul to Dec 2027 | +1.2% |
Two things in the Bank's report are worth knowing if you're in the first group. More than 90% of borrowers who renewed in the previous 12 months did so at rates below the rate they'd been stress-tested at when they got the mortgage. And some cut the increase by stretching their amortization. Bank staff estimate that about 10% of borrowers who had a mortgage in 2022 have since refinanced, and about 70% of those extended their amortization by an average of six years. So the shock is real, but for most people it landed below the rate they had already been tested at.
How we got here: 2019 to 2026
- 5-yr posted rate
- Avg new 5-yr+ fixed, uninsured
- BoC policy rate
Source: Bank of Canada, V39079; V80691335; V122667786
Show the numbers
| 5-yr posted rate | Avg new 5-yr+ fixed, uninsured | BoC policy rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2019 | 5.34% | 3.77% | 1.75% |
| Feb 2019 | 5.34% | 3.71% | 1.75% |
| Mar 2019 | 5.34% | 3.61% | 1.75% |
| Apr 2019 | 5.34% | 3.40% | 1.75% |
| May 2019 | 5.34% | 3.26% | 1.75% |
| Jun 2019 | 5.34% | 3.12% | 1.75% |
| Jul 2019 | 5.19% | 2.96% | 1.75% |
| Aug 2019 | 5.19% | 2.90% | 1.75% |
| Sep 2019 | 5.19% | 2.85% | 1.75% |
| Oct 2019 | 5.19% | 2.85% | 1.75% |
| Nov 2019 | 5.19% | 2.90% | 1.75% |
| Dec 2019 | 5.19% | 2.94% | 1.75% |
| Jan 2020 | 5.19% | 2.97% | 1.75% |
| Feb 2020 | 5.19% | 2.96% | 1.75% |
| Mar 2020 | 5.04% | 2.78% | 0.25% |
| Apr 2020 | 5.04% | 2.71% | 0.25% |
| May 2020 | 4.94% | 2.69% | 0.25% |
| Jun 2020 | 4.94% | 2.60% | 0.25% |
| Jul 2020 | 4.94% | 2.46% | 0.25% |
| Aug 2020 | 4.79% | 2.26% | 0.25% |
| Sep 2020 | 4.79% | 2.15% | 0.25% |
| Oct 2020 | 4.79% | 2.05% | 0.25% |
| Nov 2020 | 4.79% | 2.00% | 0.25% |
| Dec 2020 | 4.79% | 1.97% | 0.25% |
| Jan 2021 | 4.79% | 1.96% | 0.25% |
| Feb 2021 | 4.79% | 1.94% | 0.25% |
| Mar 2021 | 4.79% | 1.96% | 0.25% |
| Apr 2021 | 4.79% | 2.03% | 0.25% |
| May 2021 | 4.79% | 2.11% | 0.25% |
| Jun 2021 | 4.79% | 2.14% | 0.25% |
| Jul 2021 | 4.79% | 2.28% | 0.25% |
| Aug 2021 | 4.79% | 2.31% | 0.25% |
| Sep 2021 | 4.79% | 2.33% | 0.25% |
| Oct 2021 | 4.79% | 2.22% | 0.25% |
| Nov 2021 | 4.79% | 2.35% | 0.25% |
| Dec 2021 | 4.79% | 2.51% | 0.25% |
| Jan 2022 | 4.79% | 2.61% | 0.25% |
| Feb 2022 | 4.79% | 2.81% | 0.25% |
| Mar 2022 | 4.79% | 3.02% | 0.50% |
| Apr 2022 | 4.99% | 3.26% | 1.00% |
| May 2022 | 5.39% | 3.41% | 1.00% |
| Jun 2022 | 6.04% | 3.70% | 1.50% |
| Jul 2022 | 6.14% | 4.05% | 2.50% |
| Aug 2022 | 6.14% | 4.44% | 2.50% |
| Sep 2022 | 6.14% | 4.80% | 3.25% |
| Oct 2022 | 6.49% | 5.01% | 3.75% |
| Nov 2022 | 6.49% | 5.17% | 3.75% |
| Dec 2022 | 6.49% | 5.22% | 4.25% |
| Jan 2023 | 6.49% | 5.20% | 4.50% |
| Feb 2023 | 6.49% | 5.09% | 4.50% |
| Mar 2023 | 6.49% | 5.11% | 4.50% |
| Apr 2023 | 6.49% | 5.08% | 4.50% |
| May 2023 | 6.49% | 5.04% | 4.50% |
| Jun 2023 | 6.49% | 5.12% | 4.75% |
| Jul 2023 | 6.49% | 5.31% | 5.00% |
| Aug 2023 | 6.84% | 5.46% | 5.00% |
| Sep 2023 | 6.84% | 5.69% | 5.00% |
| Oct 2023 | 7.04% | 5.79% | 5.00% |
| Nov 2023 | 7.04% | 6.00% | 5.00% |
| Dec 2023 | 7.04% | 5.96% | 5.00% |
| Jan 2024 | 6.89% | 5.67% | 5.00% |
| Feb 2024 | 6.84% | 5.57% | 5.00% |
| Mar 2024 | 6.84% | 5.51% | 5.00% |
| Apr 2024 | 6.84% | 5.30% | 5.00% |
| May 2024 | 6.84% | 5.34% | 5.00% |
| Jun 2024 | 6.84% | 5.21% | 4.75% |
| Jul 2024 | 6.79% | 5.15% | 4.50% |
| Aug 2024 | 6.59% | 5.11% | 4.50% |
| Sep 2024 | 6.49% | 4.93% | 4.25% |
| Oct 2024 | 6.49% | 4.82% | 3.75% |
| Nov 2024 | 6.49% | 4.68% | 3.75% |
| Dec 2024 | 6.49% | 4.61% | 3.25% |
| Jan 2025 | 6.49% | 4.59% | 3.00% |
| Feb 2025 | 6.49% | 4.61% | 3.00% |
| Mar 2025 | 6.49% | 4.52% | 2.75% |
| Apr 2025 | 6.49% | 4.30% | 2.75% |
| May 2025 | 6.09% | 4.24% | 2.75% |
| Jun 2025 | 6.09% | 4.25% | 2.75% |
| Jul 2025 | 6.09% | 4.27% | 2.75% |
| Aug 2025 | 6.09% | 4.31% | 2.75% |
| Sep 2025 | 6.09% | 4.37% | 2.50% |
| Oct 2025 | 6.09% | 4.40% | 2.25% |
| Nov 2025 | 6.09% | 4.26% | 2.25% |
| Dec 2025 | 6.09% | 4.31% | 2.25% |
| Jan 2026 | 6.09% | 4.33% | 2.25% |
| Feb 2026 | 6.09% | 4.31% | 2.25% |
| Mar 2026 | 6.09% | 4.22% | 2.25% |
| Apr 2026 | 6.09% | 4.17% | 2.25% |
| May 2026 | 6.09% | 4.30% | 2.25% |
| Jun 2026 | 6.09% | 4.35% | 2.25% |
| Jul 2026 | 6.09% | 4.49% | 2.25% |
| Aug 2026 | 6.09% | — | 2.25% |
| Sep 2026 | 6.09% | — | 2.25% |
| Oct 2026 | 6.19% | — | 2.25% |
The policy rate sat at 0.25% from March 2020 to March 2022, then climbed to 5.00% by July 2023. It has been cut back to 2.25%, where it has been since the October 2025 cut. The Bank held again on September 2.
Look at the middle line, though. The average five-year fixed rate on new uninsured mortgages was 2.22% in October 2021 and 4.49% in July 2026. The policy rate is lower than it was for most of 2023 and 2024, but a 2021 borrower renewing into a five-year fixed is still roughly doubling their rate. That gap, not the policy rate, is what drives the payment shock.
The top line is the banks' posted five-year rate, well above what most borrowers pay; compare it with the middle line. It sat at 6.09% every week from May 2025 until it moved to 6.19% on October 7.
The math on three Greater Vancouver mortgages
These are hypothetical borrowers, not real clients. I priced each one off GVR's September 2026 benchmark (MLS® HPI) and its five-year change, which tells you roughly what a typical home cost in the fall of 2021. The apartment benchmark is $682,500, up just 0.3% over five years, so a 2021 condo buyer paid about the same as today. The townhouse benchmark is up 6.0% over five years; detached is down 2.0%.
Each borrower put 20% down, took a 25-year amortization and a five-year fixed at 2.22%, and now renews into a five-year fixed at 4.49% with 20 years left. Payments are monthly, with the rate compounded half-yearly, the usual convention for Canadian fixed-rate mortgages (the Interest Act requires the rate to be stated on a yearly or half-yearly basis).
| Example | 2021 loan | Pay at 2.22% | Owing in 2026 | Pay at 4.49% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condo (apartment) | $544,000 | $2,362 | $457,808 | $2,884 | +$522 |
| Townhouse | $767,000 | $3,330 | $645,475 | $4,066 | +$736 |
| Detached house | $1,457,000 | $6,325 | $1,226,150 | $7,723 | +$1,398 |
Source: GVR September 2026 stats package (benchmarks and 5-year change); Bank of Canada, table A4 (Oct 2021 and Jul 2026 averages, V122667786); payments calculated, half-yearly compounding (Interest Act, s. 6).
The percentage is the same for every loan size because the rates are the same. The dollars aren't. On the detached example the payment goes up by $1,398 a month, which is a car payment.
And 4.49% is an average from July, not a quote. Your rate depends on your lender, your equity and how hard you shop. On the condo example, every half point matters: at 3.99% the payment would be $2,764, at 4.99% it would be $3,006. That $242 a month spread is the reason to shop.
If you took a three-year fixed in 2023
Different problem. In October 2023 the average new uninsured fixed rate for three-to-five-year terms was 6.03%. The same category averaged 4.08% in July 2026.
Hypothetical again: a typical Greater Vancouver condo bought in the fall of 2023 cost about $768,000 (the apartment benchmark is down 11.1% over three years). With 20% down that's a $614,000 mortgage at 6.03%, or $3,939 a month. Renew the $578,932 balance at 4.08% with 22 years left and the payment drops to about $3,315.
The catch is equity. That $578,932 balance is about 85% of today's $682,500 benchmark, so the 20% cushion you started with is mostly gone on paper. The Bank of Canada flagged exactly this: households that need to refinance may not qualify if they have too little equity to meet lenders' requirements, and it called condo markets in Vancouver and Toronto the place where price pressure is greatest. If you were planning to switch lenders, pull a recent value on your unit first. A new lender may want an appraisal, and the value it finds decides what it will lend.
You can switch lenders without the stress test
Source: OSFI backgrounder, Nov 21, 2024; OSFI, minimum qualifying rate; Department of Finance, Sept 16, 2024.
Before November 2024, an uninsured borrower moving to a new federally regulated lender had to requalify at the stress-test rate. For a straight switch that hurdle is gone, which means your current lender's renewal offer is now competing with everyone else's. Treat it that way.
Lenders still underwrite a switch, and OSFI says they should keep using judgment. A new lender can say no. Switching also has costs: the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada lists discharge, registration, transfer or assignment fees and possibly an appraisal, and suggests asking whether the new lender will cover them. If your mortgage is registered as a collateral charge, moving it can cost more, and any other loans secured by it have to be repaid or moved too.
What your lender owes you: a federally regulated lender has to send a renewal statement at least 21 days before your term ends, with the balance, rate, term and fees. If it plans to renew you automatically, the statement has to say so. Twenty-one days is not enough time to shop properly. FCAC's own advice is to start a few months before the term ends and not wait for the letter.
Five ways to handle the renewal, priced out
Here's the condo example again ($457,808 owing, 20 years left) under five choices. Rates are the Bank of Canada's July 2026 averages for each type of new uninsured mortgage. The variable payment uses the same half-yearly compounding as the others so the numbers compare like for like; your lender's variable contract may compound differently.
| Option | Rate | Payment | Interest, 3 yrs | Owing after 5 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-yr fixed, 20 yrs left | 4.49% | $2,884 | $58,207 | $378,246 |
| 5-yr fixed, back to 25 yrs | 4.49% | $2,531 | $59,065 | $401,872 |
| 3-yr fixed, 20 yrs | 4.08% | $2,785 | $52,824 | $375,383 |
| Variable, 20 yrs | 3.86% | $2,733 | $49,940 | $373,818 |
| Pay $83,000 down, 5-yr fixed | 4.49% | $2,361 | $47,654 | $309,670 |
Source: Bank of Canada, table A4 (July 2026: 5-yr+ fixed 4.49%, 3-to-5-yr fixed 4.08%, variable 3.86%; uninsured, new lending); payments calculated.
Stretching to 25 years gets the payment back to $2,531, close to the original $2,362. The cost: after five years you still owe $401,872 instead of $378,246. It's a cash-flow fix, not a savings plan. With your current lender it's their call. With a new lender it ends the straight switch, so you're stress-tested. On an insured mortgage, FCAC notes a new insurance premium may apply if you extend the amortization (my CMHC insurance calculator shows what premiums look like).
Paying a lump sum down fits best at renewal. Prepayment penalties apply when you pay more than your privileges allow during a term, and FCAC suggests waiting until the end of the term to prepay if the penalty would be large. To keep the payment at $2,362 at 4.49% over 20 years, the condo owner would need to pay down about $83,000. Most people don't have that sitting around, but even a partial paydown helps, and during the term FCAC's advice is to use your prepayment privileges every year.
A shorter fixed term was cheaper than a five-year in July, by 0.41 points on average. You're betting you'll renew into something no worse in three years. Nobody knows that.
Variable was the cheapest average in July at 3.86%. It moves with the Bank of Canada's rate. In October 2021 the average new uninsured variable rate was 1.45%; over the next two years the policy rate went from 0.25% to 5.00%. Variable is cheaper today, with no promise it stays that way.
My read: if a 22% payment increase is uncomfortable but doable, I'd take the term that lets you sleep, put whatever spare cash you have against the principal at renewal, and keep the amortization where it is. If it's not doable, extending the amortization with your current lender is a legitimate tool, and the Bank of Canada's report says some borrowers did exactly that. Run your own numbers with my mortgage affordability calculator and compare offers on the mortgage rates page.
Should you wait for October 28?
The Bank of Canada's next rate announcement is Wednesday, October 28, at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, with a new Monetary Policy Report. Here's what's known going in:
- The policy rate is 2.25% and was held at every decision so far in 2026.
- Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, the second monthly drop in a row, and unemployment rose to 6.5% (Statistics Canada, October 9). B.C. lost 20,000 jobs; its rate was 6.4%.
- Bond yields have gone the other way. The five-year Government of Canada yield was 3.08% on June 1 and 3.54% on October 9. On September 2 the Bank noted that long-term bond yields had moved up globally, including in Canada.
After the jobs report, TD Economics' Andrew Hencic said "we expect the BoC to remain data-dependent and stay on hold in October," and CIBC's Andrew Grantham said the softness "supports our call that the Bank of Canada will remain patient and keep interest rates on hold for now" (as reported by Canadian Mortgage Professional). In the same report, Hencic said markets were pricing 27% odds of a hike in October and 88% for December. Those are forecasts and market bets, not facts, and they can change before the decision.
My read: October 28 matters most if you're choosing variable, because variable rates move with the policy rate. Five-year fixed rates track the bond market, and the posted rate already ticked up on October 7 while the policy rate sat still. If your term ends in the next few months, I wouldn't hold off shopping for a decision date. Get offers in writing, ask each lender how long it will hold the rate, and you keep the option of a better one if rates fall, or protection against a worse one if they rise.
What it means for owners in Greater Vancouver
Some owners facing a big renewal will ask whether to sell instead. Before you do, look at what you'd be selling into. Here's EstateBlock's live listing data from this morning. These are asking prices of active listings, not sale prices.
| City | Active | Condo median ask | Price cuts | Avg cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver | 4,742 | $799,000 | 333 | 9.7% |
| Burnaby | 1,978 | $687,041 | 178 | 8.5% |
| Richmond | 1,976 | $679,877 | 168 | 9.4% |
| Coquitlam | 1,344 | $638,000 | 101 | 9.3% |
| North Vancouver | 992 | $799,000 | 59 | 9.4% |
| Surrey | 4,358 | $499,877 | 415 | 9.6% |
Source: EstateBlock.com live listings, snapshot October 13, 2026 (Vancouver, Burnaby, Surrey and other city pages). Asking prices of active listings.
Vancouver has 4,742 active listings and 333 of them have had a price cut, averaging 9.7%. Surrey has 415 cuts across 4,358 listings. GVR's apartment benchmark is down 6.2% over the past year. My read: a seller who has to sell right now is negotiating from the weak side, especially with a condo.
Selling mid-term to escape a payment also means a penalty. FCAC says it's usually the higher of three months' interest or the interest rate differential, and lenders usually use the IRD if your rate is above today's rate on a contract signed less than five years ago. Penalties are for breaking a term early, which is one more reason to make the decision at maturity, not in a panic halfway through. If you want to know what your place would realistically sell for, my home value estimator is a start; the market context is in my Vancouver market update.
If you're buying, not renewing, the renewal math cuts the other way: today's stress test qualifies you at your rate plus two points (or 5.25%), which is about the size of the jump in my 2021 example. I worked through what it takes to qualify in the income needed to buy a house in Vancouver, and the cash you need on top of the down payment in closing costs in BC.
A renewal checklist, by month
- Four to five months out: find your maturity date, balance, rate and whether the mortgage is insured or a collateral charge. Check your prepayment privileges in the contract.
- About four months out: get written offers from at least two other lenders or a mortgage broker, and ask each how long it will hold the rate and whether it covers switching costs.
- When the renewal statement arrives (at least 21 days before maturity at a federally regulated lender): compare it to your outside offers and ask your lender to match the best one.
- Decide the term and amortization on purpose. A straight switch keeps the same balance and amortization; anything more means requalifying.
- At maturity: put any lump sum against the principal before the new term starts.
This post is general information, not mortgage, tax or legal advice. Confirm your own numbers and options with your lender or a licensed mortgage professional, and with an accountant or lawyer if you're restructuring debt or selling.
FAQ
How much will my mortgage payment go up at renewal in 2026?
It depends on when you locked in. The Bank of Canada expects five-year fixed mortgages from the pandemic years to renew with payments about 15% higher on average. In my hypothetical 2021 example (2.22% renewing at 4.49%, 20 years left), the payment rises 22.1%. Shorter fixed terms and variable-payment mortgages from 2022 and 2023, on average, won't see a change.
Do I have to pass the stress test to switch lenders at renewal?
Not for a straight switch. Since November 21, 2024, OSFI doesn't require the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured straight switches (same loan amount, same amortization), and the Canadian Mortgage Charter lets insured mortgage holders switch at renewal without another stress test. Adding money or extending the amortization means you requalify.
When does my lender have to send a renewal offer?
A federally regulated lender must send a renewal statement at least 21 days before your term ends. FCAC recommends starting to shop a few months before that instead of waiting for the letter.
Should I wait for the October 28 Bank of Canada decision before renewing?
The decision mainly moves variable rates. In my read, five-year fixed rates track bond yields more closely, and the five-year Government of Canada yield rose from 3.08% to 3.54% between June 1 and October 9. If your term ends soon, get written offers with a rate hold now rather than waiting for a date.
Sources
- Bank of Canada: Financial Stability Report 2026, Households
- Bank of Canada: FSR 2026 Chart 8 data (payment change at renewal)
- Bank of Canada: Staff Analytical Note 2025-21, How will mortgage payments change at renewal? (July 2025)
- Bank of Canada: interest rates on new mortgages, table A4 (Valet API)
- Bank of Canada: target for the overnight rate, V39079 (Valet API)
- Bank of Canada: 5-year conventional mortgage posted rate, V80691335 (Valet API)
- Bank of Canada: 5-year Government of Canada benchmark bond yield (Valet API)
- Bank of Canada: policy rate announcement, September 2, 2026
- Bank of Canada: upcoming events (October 28, 2026 announcement)
- OSFI: Backgrounder, Minimum Qualifying Rate (November 21, 2024)
- OSFI: Minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages
- Department of Finance Canada: mortgage reforms and Canadian Mortgage Charter (September 16, 2024)
- Financial Consumer Agency of Canada: Renewing your mortgage
- Financial Consumer Agency of Canada: Mortgage fees, prepayment penalties
- Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey, September 2026
- Canadian Mortgage Professional: economists on September's jobs report (October 9, 2026)
- Greater Vancouver Realtors: September 2026 stats package (MLS® HPI benchmarks)
- EstateBlock.com: live listings by city (snapshot October 13, 2026; asking prices)
- Interest Act, s. 6 (rate calculated yearly or half-yearly)
Dan Marusin PREC, REALTOR® · Renanza Realty Inc., 777 Hornby St, Suite 600, Vancouver, BC. This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice.